Player, teacher, and progenitor of the eponymous O’Hagan’s Law, John O’Hagan is also one of the nicest people I’ve ever met.
In honor of John, today begins our Wednesday Would You Double/Would You Take series, featuring sample problems provided by John O’Hagan himself.
Redouble or not for White?
Here’s the approach John O’Hagan suggests:
First, use Woolsey’s Rule, which says if you’re Red and not sure if it’s a take, then it’s a double (unless of course, White is too good).
Red is behind by 14 pips so the race is basically impossible to win, and Red has few chances to hit (White’s 5-1, 6-1, 4-4, 5-5, or 6-6 followed by a hit), approx. 6%. There’s no way Red will take, at virtually any match score.
Next, see if you as White are too good: That’s the question for today’s doubling problem.
Even if White leaves a shot and Red hits, especially if White rolled doubles to leave the shot, Red is still not even a favorite because Red has no board.
Can White win gammons? It’s been known to happen from this position 🙂
So why double? Even if you get hit, you can still probably double out Red, so you lose close to nothing by waiting. Recommendation: No double, go for gammon.
Here’s the XG file. Was this analysis correct? What did I miss or get wrong?